Bug Report Please don’t mislead players. A gem with 80% success rate should go to ORB—it has to be 80%!

[timetunnel]

I don’t know if I’m just unlucky or if this is intentionally designed to frustrate players. I went to Elysian City to upgrade my gem, and it clearly says 80% success rate. But I failed three times in a row—and actually several times in total.

I seriously start to wonder if this ‘80%’ is just another kind of word game, like 300% poison resistance or 120% beef burger

 

[CrB1985]

I've had a run of 13 straight successful orbs before so it evens itself out over time have also had 3 failed in a row it's rng

 

[DangerHV]

80% doesn't mean it will guarantee work 8 times out of every 10 attempts, For instance, if a slot's RTP is 96%, the game is programmed to return £96 for every £100 bet over millions of spins.

I have had many craft continuously without any breakages and then many break in a row.

 

[ukingame]

Same on my 5% gacha games.

 

[zad48231]

I bought a dice and rolled 1 three times in a row. I'm going to get a refund because it's clearly not working. It's meant to be equal chances of all 6 numbers

 

[TimeTunner]

I bought a dice and rolled 1 three times in a row. I'm going to get a refund because it's clearly not working. It's meant to be equal chances of all 6 numbers

An 80% success rate. Whenever I get a gem, I go for it. Out of 10 attempts, more than half fail—at best it’s around 50%. I feel like you’re siding with the GM. How can you say 80% success is a reasonable number? It’s like having 260% poison resistance and still getting poisoned. Everyone interprets these numbers differently. If you put something like 200% on a food ingredient label, that wouldn’t even make sense.


Of course, there’s another very important point. If you enter the room with a full backpack of gems, about 8 out of 10 succeed. But if you go in with just one each time, re-entering the room every time, the failure rate on that first one might actually be set very high by the GM. When I run the event with a full inventory, the success rate really is quite high. But if you go one by one, it’s not even 50%. In the end, everything just costs 5 GG anyway.

 

[CrB1985]

An 80% success rate. Whenever I get a gem, I go for it. Out of 10 attempts, more than half fail—at best it’s around 50%. I feel like you’re siding with the GM. How can you say 80% success is a reasonable number? It’s like having 260% poison resistance and still getting poisoned. Everyone interprets these numbers differently. If you put something like 200% on a food ingredient label, that wouldn’t even make sense.


Of course, there’s another very important point. If you enter the room with a full backpack of gems, about 8 out of 10 succeed. But if you go in with just one each time, re-entering the room every time, the failure rate on that first one might actually be set very high by the GM. When I run the event with a full inventory, the success rate really is quite high. But if you go one by one, it’s not even 50%. In the end, everything just costs 5 GG anyway

I've only had a single failure since the event ended probably only 8-10 attempts as for the normal gem guy in mongchong I've not had a single successful attempt from 6

 

[TimeTunner]

I bought a dice and rolled 1 three times in a row. I'm going to get a refund because it's clearly not working. It's meant to be equal chances of all 6 numbers

And I think this is totally doable. If you go in with a full bag of gems and do them consecutively, the success rate really is high. But if you only have 1–2 each time, the first attempts are almost guaranteed to fail. That doesn’t actually affect the overall 80% success rate—it’s just that later on, you don’t have any gems left.

So every time you enter the room, if that 20% failure chance is placed right at the beginning, it effectively becomes a 100% failure for you. It’s really just about how the stats are counted. In the end, it’s basically a numbers trick—80% refers to the success rate of a full batch of gems, not the combined success rate across separate attempts. But doing it this way feels pretty frustrating.

 

[zad48231]

I tested this very thoroughly a couple years ago and overall the rate worked out pretty much bang on what is claimed

I don't "take sides" on things like this based on my feelings, I don't trust what anyone (GM, you, anyone else) says. I test and I take the side of whatever my results show

To be statistically significant you need a large number of examples, many hundreds of tests. Without that everything can be answered by saying it's random luck, because that's how randomness works

If you think there's a problem. Record specific results of at least 100 gems. Exact numbers of attempts and exact number of success/fail

I'd be more than happy to help analyse your results and I'll stand corrected if your results demonstrate a high number of tests supports a real delta in the success rate

At the moment it's a hunch based on a statistically insignificant number of examples

 

[Alsiral]

I think people over think rng and game mechanics some times.