For the last 2 or 3 weeks the success rate of turning gems into orbs seems to have dropped dramatically to around 25% for me. I've tried after hunting or when logging in and it doesn't seem to make a difference. The success rate of 50% quoted by Kev, is that based on the game as a whole or does the figure apply to each player individually? eg If 20 players have success will the next 20 players probably not. Just curious as to how it might work and yes I know 50% is an average figure.
Kevin in Mongchon
- Thread starter Nuggets
- Start date
It's random each and every time you do it. Just a coin flip. I appreciate that losses always feel like they outweigh gains but if you did it over a period it would always be 50:50
Granted it is pseudorandom, though, however that is random enough.
If you want to learn more: http://www.delphibasics.co.uk/RTL.asp?Name=Random
Granted it is pseudorandom, though, however that is random enough.
If you want to learn more: http://www.delphibasics.co.uk/RTL.asp?Name=Random
UnKnownAngel
Leading Contributor
Lol I clicked that link and my brain farted.
Darkstyle12
Active Member
Would be very awesome if there was a higher success rate and also it would be good to see grinding oils in the shops. I think a higher chance of success with grind oils in the shops would work as it’s still a good sink.
Normally out of a bag of 40 gems I might get 10-20 orbs on a good day. Then about 7/8 actual upgrades. That costs 4mill for the grind oils then 4mill for the crafting. Having grinding oils in shops would actually suck more gold out of circulation. Which is what I believe Kevin was designed for.
Then replace grind oils in drops for orbs. Not only would that make everyone hunt more old skool bosses but people would actually pick up the orbs. It’s depressing killing a boss and getting grind oils. We all love a cheeky orb.
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I have to agree killing a boss and just getting oils and benes does suck but if u put the oils into the shops all u would then get is benes and a few flowers, I quite like somewhere to take my oils and gems to get an orb to either sell or use and the 50% is perfect Mayb a little too high tbh, just think of all those stats u can put on your kit to make u so overpowered.
Darkstyle12
Active Member
That’s why I said swap grinding oils in drops for orbs.
UnKnownAngel
Leading Contributor
An orb dropped yesterday and it was actually a pretty good sight! ZuWoomaTaurus drops orbs I think though, 100gps a spawn, go fill ye boots!
I don't think GrindingOil in shop is be all and end all, most changes like that comes at a price, some players use the 4mill you spend on their Oils as an income to how they fund their things, not everybody power levels or even makes it to end game, it is a journey, not a race.
Everybody hunting old skool bosses for orbs would again shaft the lower player leaving him with nothing to kill, already it is hard. So I get what you are saying but I get why it is how it is too.
Well over a week out of 35 gems 5 successes of which 1 worked. So nowhere near even 25%. I'll accept what you say but still think it is not weighted at 50/50. I know other guild members get similar results to me. We'll just suck it up :lemo:
zad48231
Leading Contributor
At some point last year I went a period of about 2 months recording every gem>orb attempt, was over 1000 attempts and while on individual days it spiked dramatically one way or the other, overall was pretty much bang on 50%. That's the whole point of randomness, you win some you lose some, but on average over the long term it will be exactly as described
Andy has previously said regards karma it affects a lot of things (don't think he said specifically which things, so this might be one of them) but the effect is never more than a 5% swing either way, so it's really not worth taking into consideration
Boogaman28
Newby
Leave poor Kevin alone . He might not be the best, but damn it he tries his best . In his defence i got 3 storm gems in one hunt when event was on and all 3 orbed . .
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That's an interesting point which I'd wondered about after posting. At what point should it even out? eg Is there a value (of attempts) which once you have reached it your results should be near 50%. Do you have to have 1000 attempts, 10,000 or just keep going. Obviously the more you try the nearer 50% you should reach, but practically, if the value is infinity or 10,000 (for example) I think that for the average player (1000 attempts in 2 months is pretty impressive btw) if that value can never be reached then our results will be either quite a bit higher or lower than a 50% average. Hope that makes sense. Maybe there are players who consistently have a better than 50% success due to the number of attempts made.
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Arma
Active Member
Not to sound grumpy but why is this post being continued? It's been stated that it's a 50% chance and as the evidence given by Zade we can roughly confirm it's 50% yes some days you might shatter 12 out of 15 orb attempts and on other days you might succeed on 15 out of 16 attempts.
zad48231
Leading Contributor
I'd be more than happy to write a program that will generate a distribution chart to show likely outputs and let you see when it will even out
For the record, 1000 in 2 months isn't much, I've done over 100 just today lol
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Cos arguing with Internet strangers is better than arguing with my neighbours
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Sigh, me being me, obviously couldn't help myself, any opportunity to play with graphs!
I wrote a simple little program that uses the same algorithm as Kevin to decide whether or not a gem becomes an orb, and ran it a total of 11,111,000 times (to generate the graph, I actually ran it a lot more times than that after generating the graph, just to confirm some things)
First, the blue squares show the distribution of success rates when you try to upgrade 10 gems, sometimes it is as low as 20% (2 orbs out of 10 gems) and sometimes as high as 90%! (9 orbs out of 10 gems). If I ran the program again and again it would certainly be possible that you could get 10 out of 10 or 0 out of 10 (chance of either of those things happening is 1 in 1024, so if you do 1024 gems you'll probably find on one occasion you'll get 10 success in a row and on one occasion you'll get 10 fails in a row). I actually ran the program in a loop a further 100 times and saw exactly the pattern that the maths would predict.
Now doing 100 gems at a time as in the orange diamonds, you see the distribution is much closer to the middle, it rarely deviates more than 10%, so from 100 gems you will almost always get between 40 and 60 orbs
Doing 1000 gems the deviation is more like 3%, so you're almost certainly going to get between 470 and 530 orbs out of 1000 gems.
At higher orders it's almost bang on 50% all the way
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5starstore
Active Member
i bet you got a nerd boner over that shit